The World Economic Forum’s survey report in 2023 revealed that more than half of respondents (54%) anticipated instability and risks of global crises in 2024, with geopolitical events driving at the front seat. 

The events including trade wars, political events (elections), regional conflicts, etc are quite the concerns. These growing threats are directly or indirectly impacting businesses’ supply chains leading to delays, disruptions, increased costs, and material shortages. To navigate these complexities, businesses should stay informed about geopolitical risks and develop strong procurement strategies to mitigate them and maintain supply chain resilience.  

Today, we’ll explore geopolitical risks and their impact on the global supply chain of businesses.  Additionally, we’ll share the current geopolitical crises of 2024 and their effect on businesses operating globally and also suggest some strategies to mitigate these risks and ensure business continuity in an increasingly evolving world. 

So, let’s get started! 

What are Geopolitical Events & Uncertainties? 

Simply put, Geopolitical events and uncertainties are unpredictable risks arising from disruption caused by uneven political or diplomatic relations between nations. These risks can take any form, including political instability, military conflicts, international wars, terrorist threats, economic crises, geographical events, and climate risks.  

These risks can directly or indirectly affect the global economy and businesses. The direct impacts are surging prices, increased uncertainties, financial transaction issues, capital control, and higher transportation risk. The indirect effects include disrupted trade flow, shortage of resources, higher inflation, and risks in the supply chain. Typically, geopolitical risk occurs when a major conflict, a shift in power, or a national crisis happens from a nation’s involvement in international matters.  

For example, U.S. elections will have a significant impact on all the global economies. The U.S. is one the most powerful nations and with its elections comes several uncertainties and potential risks as new powers and agendas might overtake. 

These risks equally impact both the nation itself and the global community around the world. Unlike other types of risks, geopolitical risks are quite difficult to predict and come as an unexpected shock and they might escalate or create massive challenges for businesses.  

Currently, globalization has become a major contributor to fueling these risks as businesses across the globe are increasingly interconnecting different economies by exchanging goods and services. Now, the major focus of businesses operating worldwide is to understand how these risks are affecting their supply chain system. And come up with new procurement strategies to help build resilience, adapt to modern marketing challenges, and prepare for unforeseen risks. 

How do Geopolitical Risks Affect the Global Supply Chain?  

Geopolitical risks are indeed a game-changer for businesses; they can disrupt a business’s healthy supply chain in a fraction of the time. As companies increasingly shift to the international level to source materials, manufacture products, and distribute goods, the impact of geopolitical events has become more critical. Below is an analysis of how these risks can affect the supply chain: 

1. Disruption of the supply chain  

In various situations, geopolitical risks can disrupt the complete supply chain system. For instance, a war outbreak can put manufacturing plants, transportation systems, and communication mediums on hold. Such disruption can cause a global level of supply shortage and a halt of production, resulting in significant financial losses.

2. Delay in delivery 

When geopolitical tensions, such as trade wars, labor strikes, or regional conflicts emerge, it can lead to delayed delivery times. In case of political instability in regions with manufacturing and shipping setups, transportation routes may be disrupted and ports might be closed. These kinds of situations can lead to delays in the delivery, affecting scheduled deliveries, and unfulfilled customer demands. 

3. Increased transportation cost 
The emergence of a geopolitical crisis can lead to a rise in transportation costs. For example, situations like the imposition of tariffs, rerouting transportation to avoid conflict zones, or increasing security measures can inflate the cost of transportation moving goods across borders. Additionally, finding alternative routes or transportation to avoid risky regions might drive up expenditure, overall impacting the supply chain budget and profitability of businesses. 

4. Shortage of materials 
Geopolitical events can disturb the supply of raw materials, resulting in a shortage of materials. Let’s understand it with an example, there’s conflict in a region rich in essential minerals and due to this, the local government has limited access to these materials. During such conflicts, material shortage can lead to a delay in production, forcing companies to seek resources from other suppliers, which may not stand out in quantity or quality requirements. This can ultimately disrupt the production process.  

5. Fluctuation in currency value 
Geopolitical instability and events can lead to fluctuations in currency values, creating financial uncertainty. Businesses operating globally can encounter currency unpredictability, affecting the cost of imports and exports, and resulting in uncertain pricing and profit margins. For instance, a sudden devaluation of a supplier’s national currency could reduce costs or might signal economic instability, leading to a reevaluation of business relationships.

6. Changes in trade policies 
Sudden changes in the trade policy including imposition of tariffs and import/export restrictions can occur during geopolitical tensions. These policy shifts can create barriers for businesses to trade, forcing companies to quickly adapt or face the risk of losing their market. Such unpredictable trade policy changes can make long-term planning difficult for businesses.

7. Shift in supply-demand 

Geopolitical risks can impact the balance of supply and demand in the global markets. For instance, a conflict in a major oil-producing region can reduce the supply of oil, driving up its prices, and impacting industries depending on fuel. Similarly, sanctions on a specific country can lower the supply of goods from that nation, while increasing the demand for fuel in other regions. This shift in supply-demand can lead to price hikes and supply chain disruptions. 

Some recent geopolitical events impacted the Supply Chain.  

The rising tension and geopolitical events between countries can impact the global supply chain. Here are two such geopolitical crises from 2024 that might affect several businesses’ supply chains: 

The Red Sea Crises 

Image source: U.S. Energy Information Administration  

Yemen Houthi group has attacked cargo ships in Bab al Mandbeb Strait from the southern side of the Red Sea. This launch has caused many global shipping and oil companies like Maersk and British Petroleum to halt their transportation in that area and suspend shipments. 

Hence, ships of these companies are avoiding their route from Europe to Asia, especially Egypt’s Suez Canal. This canal was considered the maritime route connecting Europe and Asia, accounting for 12% of the world’s shipping traffic. This crisis is directly causing shipments to travel longer routes, adding cost to transport, and increasing oil prices.  

The U.S.-China Tension 

The rising U.S.-China trade tension will continue to impact the global supply chain. The US has imposed export restrictions on China, particularly in the tech sector due to intellectual property concerns. This intensified trade tension between both nations.  As a result, the trade of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) between them is fueling a spark in their relations as China is a major importer of US LNG.  

Now in response, China has imposed its own export restrictions on gallium, germanium, and other metals which has caused an increase in commodity prices, further complicating the entire global supply chain economy.  

Procurement Strategies to Mitigate Risks in the Supply Chain. 

Businesses in order to mitigate risks should implement strong procurement strategies, catering to their specific needs. Following are some of the strategies that can help businesses save from impromptu geopolitical crises: 

1. Digital supply chain 
Digital supply chain helps in predicting geopolitical risks by using tools and tech to analyze data, identify patterns, and predict potential disruptions. These technologies include Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things, Predictive Analytics, and Blockchain to monitor supply chain operations, enabling companies to detect and spot potential risks early and manage them in real time.  

2. Consider nearshore or reshore strategy 
Businesses should consider adopting a nearshore or reshore strategy to mitigate risks associated with long-distance shipping. This ensures reduced risks or disruptions related to long-distance shipping and shortened delivery times.  

3. Smart Inventory Management 

Adopt a lean inventory management strategy, like just-in-time (JIT) management, to avoid overstocking. Similarly keep stocks of essential items as a backup to protect against shortages. 

4. Work with multiple suppliers 
Instead of relying on just one supplier for importing materials or commodities, work with multiple suppliers. It will help businesses reduce risks of geopolitical instability and ensure backup options. 

5. Build Strong Supplier Relationships 

Invest in long-term relationships with the suppliers. This will improve their ability to manage risks, deliver on time, and boost their overall performance and reliability. 

In a Nutshell  

Geopolitical risks and events have the potential to impact the supply chain operations of businesses globally. To reduce the impact of these risks, businesses should follow comprehensive approaches and strategies. The strategies enable them to identify potential disruptions, mitigate the risks, build durability, and align with global market changes. 

Apart from integrating mitigation strategies, companies can boost their supply chain operations by leveraging modern tools and techs. Additionally, by developing emergency backup plans, enterprises can facilitate long-term relationships.  

Is your Supply Chain ready to mitigate the Geopolitical Risks? 

If not, Moglix can help you mitigate disruptions and ensure business continuity. Our Supply Chain Risk Management Solutions understand the crucial importance of managing supply chain risks for the seamless operations of your business. Our solutions can empower you to identify, assess, and navigate potential risks, ensuring continuity and durability worldwide. 
Contact now!